Karakterisasi Variabilitas Temporal Curah Hujan Berdasarkan Analisis Z-Score di Desa Sukaharja, Kabupaten Sukabumi

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ABSTRAK

Variabilitas curah hujan sangat memengaruhi sistem pertanian di Desa Sukaharja, sehingga analisis pola temporal diperlukan untuk mendukung mitigasi risiko iklim lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengarakterisasi variabilitas curah hujan periode 2005–2025 menggunakan data curah hujan harian dari NASA POWER. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan parameter statistik deskriptif seperti koefisien variasi, serta pendekatan Z-score untuk mengidentifikasi anomali curah hujan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pola hujan bersifat musiman monsun tropis dengan dominasi kondisi normal sebanyak 181 kejadian serta tren jangka panjang yang relatif stabil. Tingkat variabilitas ekstrem ditemukan pada puncak musim kemarau, sedangkan distribusi curah hujan di musim penghujan cenderung stabil. Disimpulkan bahwa karakteristik curah hujan historis tergolong stabil secara jangka panjang, namun ketidakpastian yang ekstrem pada periode kemarau mengharuskan adanya strategi adaptasi pertanian melalui penyesuaian kalender tanam dan optimalisasi air 

Kata kunci: anomali curah hujan, curah hujan, Sukaharja, variabilitas temporal, Z-score

ABSTRACT

Rainfall variability significantly affects the agricultural system in Sukaharja Village, and analyzing temporal patterns is necessary to support land-based climate risk mitigation. This study aims to characterize rainfall variability for the 2005–2025 period using daily rainfall data from NASA POWER. The analysis was conducted using descriptive statistical parameters such as the coefficient of variation, as well as the Z-score approach to identify rainfall anomalies. The results indicate a tropical monsoon rainfall pattern with 181 instances of normal conditions and a relatively stable long-term trend. Extreme variability was found during the peak of the dry season, while rainfall distribution during the wet season tended to be stable. It is concluded that historical rainfall characteristics are relatively stable in the long term; however, extreme uncertainty during the dry season necessitates agricultural adaptation strategies through adjustments to the planting calendar and water optimization 

Keywords: rainfall anomaly, rainfall, Sukaharja, temporal variability, Z-score