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Strategi Penambahan Pembangkit pada Sistem 150 kV melalui Pendekatan Multi Criteria Decision Analysis berbasis Estimasi LOLP
Abstract
ABSTRAK
Keandalan sistem tenaga listrik sangat penting untuk memenuhi kebutuhan energi masyarakat modern. Pertumbuhan beban tanpa penambahan kapasitas pembangkit dapat menurunkan keandalan yang diukur melalui Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) dan Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). Perhitungan LOLP menggunakan metode rekursif untuk jumlah unit pembangkit yang kecil karena akurasinya yang tinggi, sementara metode Monte Carlo digunakan untuk sistem lebih besar karena efisiensi dan skalabilitasnya. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak pertumbuhan beban terhadap keandalan sistem dan strategi ekspansi pembangkit. Metode Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) digunakan untuk menentukan pembangkit terbaik berdasarkan kriteria teknologi, keandalan, dan ekonomi. MCDA terbukti efektif karena fleksibel, mudah diterapkan, dan tidak memerlukan perangkat lunak khusus. Studi selama 10 tahun pada sistem 150 kV dengan kapasitas 450 MW dan beban puncak 328,36 MW menunjukkan bahwa penambahan pembangkit dan integrasi Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) berhasil menurunkan LOLP menjadi 0,000096 pada akhir evaluasi.
Kata kunci: LOLE, LOLP, MCDA
ABSTRACT
he reliability of power systems is crucial to meet the energy demands of modern society. Load growth without additional generation capacity can reduce reliability, measured by Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). LOLP is calculated using a recursive method for small generation units due to its high accuracy, while the Monte Carlo method is preferred for larger systems because of its efficiency and scalability. This study analyzes the impact of load growth on system reliability and strategies for generation expansion. The Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was employed to identify the optimal generation options based on technological, reliability, and economic criteria. MCDA proved effective due to its flexibility, ease of application, and independence from specialized software. A 10-year study on a 150 kV system with a capacity of 450 MW and a peak load of 328.36 MW demonstrated that adding generation and integrating a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) successfully reduced LOLP to 0.000096 by the end of the evaluation.
Keywords: LOLE, LOLP, MCDA
Keywords
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.26760/elkomika.v12i4.%25p
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ISSN (print) : 2338-8323 | ISSN (electronic) : 2459-9638
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