Prediksi Perubahan Kawasan Hutan Mangrove Menggunakan Model Cellular Automata Markov pada Citra Penginderaan Jauh Landsat (Studi Kasus: Kawasan Resort Bama, Taman Nasional Baluran, Kabupaten Situbondo, Jawa Timur)

Soni Darmawan, Aprilia Claudia, Anggun Tridawati


Taman Nasional Baluran merupakan taman konservasi yang mengalami degradasi mangrove. Upaya restorasi mangrove perlu dilakukan untuk mendukung Peraturan Daerah pada Kabupaten Situbondo No 6 tahun 2014. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung luasan perubahan kawasan hutan mangrove setiap tahun dan pada tahun prediksi. Penelitian ini menggunakan model terintegrasi Markov Chain danCellular Automata untuk menyimulasikan perubahan penggunaan lahan periode 2000 dan 2020 dan memprediksi penggunaan lahan mangrove periode 2030. Teknologi penginderaan jauh digunakan untuk menganalis penggunaan lahan melalui citra satelit Landsat (tahun 2000, 2010, dan 2020). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penutupan lahan mangrove mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,5% pada tahun 2000 – 2010 dan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 3,5% pada tahun 2010-2020. Luasan mangrove terus mengalami peningkatan pada tahun 2020 – 2030 yaitu sebesar 9,3% atau 122 Ha. Penerapan model CA-Markov dalam memprediksi penutupan lahan menunjukan nilai kstandard 0,8 yang dapat diartikan bahwa pemodelan dapat diterima secara ilmiah.


Taman Nasional Baluran is a conservation park that is experiencing mangrove degradation. Mangrove restoration efforts need to be carried out to support the Regional Regulation of Situbondo Regency No. 6 of 2014. This study aims to calculate the extent of changes in mangrove forest areas every year and in the predicted year. This study used an integrated Markov Chain and Cellular Automata model to simulate land use change for the period 2000 and 2020 and predict mangrove land use for the period 2030. Remote sensing technology was used to analyze land use through Landsat satellite imagery (2000, 2010, and 2020). The results showed that mangrove land cover decreased by 0.5% in 2000 – 2010 and increased by 3.5% in 2010 – 2020. Mangrove area continues to increase in 2020 – 2030, which is 9.3% or 122 Ha. The application of the CA-Markov model to predict land cover shows a standard value of 0.8 which means that the modeling is scientifically accepted.

Kata Kunci

Mangrove, Markov Chain, Cellular Automata, Kstandard

Teks Lengkap:



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