Prediksi Banjir menggunakan ANFIS-PCA sebagai Peringatan Dini Bencana Banjir

AGUSTINA RACHMAWARDANI, SASTRA KUSUMA WIJAYA, PRAWITO PRAWITO, ARSHASENA SOPAHELUWAKAN

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ABSTRAK

Di antara kejadian bencana yang terjadi di Indonesia, 76 persen terdiri dari bencana hidrometeorologi seperti banjir, badai, longsor, dan kebakaran hutan. Provinsi DKI Jakarta sebagai daerah perkotaan sangat rentan terhadap banjir. Persamaan matematis yang kompleks dapat digunakan untuk memodelkan kejadian banjir secara fisik. Sistem pembelajar (machine learning) adalah sistem yang merancang dan mengembangkan algoritma yang menggunakan data historis untuk melakukan prediksi banjir. Dengan menggunakan data ini, sistem pembelajar dapat menghasilkan nilai probabilitas dasar, yang sangat membantu sistem prediksi, memberikan solusi yang lebih hemat biaya dan kinerja yang lebih baik. Prediksi yang akurat dan tepat dapat membantu strategi pengelolaan sumber daya air, analisis kebijakan dan rekomendasi serta pemodelan evakuasi lebih lanjut. Penelitian ini akan dibahas tentang Perancangan Sistem Peringatan Dini Banjir berbasis Ensemble Machine Learning sebagai mitigasi bencana banjir. Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan nilai RMSE dari algoritma ANFIS – PCA adalah sebesar 0.12 dan koefisen korelasi (R2) sebesar 0.856.

Kata kunci: Prediksi Banjir, Machine Learning, ANFIS, ANFIS – PCA

 

ABSTRACT

The nation of Indonesia is prone to disaster, with 76% of natural disasters being hydrometeorological, such as floods, landslides, tropical cyclones, and droughts. Flood occurrences can be physically modeled using complex mathematical equations. Machine Learning serves as a system for designing and developing algorithms that can predict flood events using historical data. Machine learning systems can leverage existing data to produce underlying probability values, making significant contributions to prediction systems that offer better performance and cost-effective solutions. Accurate predictions contribute to water resource management strategies, policy recommendations, and further evacuation modeling. This research will discuss an Early Warning Flood System design based on Ensemble Machine Learning as a flood disaster mitigation measure. The research results show that the RMSE value and coefficient correlation (R2) for the ANFIS - PCA algorithm are 0.12 and 0.856, respectively.

Keywords: Flood Early Warning, Machine Learning, ANFIS, ANFIS – PCA


Kata Kunci


Prediksi Banjir; Machine Learning; ANFIS; ANFIS – PCA

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Referensi


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.26760/elkomika.v12i2.335

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